Genoa vs Milan: prediction, probable lineups, TV schedule and matchday 37 preview

AC Milan in crisis: four losses in the last six matchdays and Champions League hopes hanging

The numbers tell the story of the deepest crisis of the Rossoneri season. The most recent AC Milan Serie A win dates back to April 19 against Hellas Verona (a Rabiot goal): since then, nothing — a 0-0 home draw against Juventus on April 26, a 2-0 defeat at the Mapei Stadium to Sassuolo on May 3 (with a second-yellow dismissal for Tomori) and finally the stunning 2-3 reverse to Atalanta one week ago at the Meazza. And in the two matchdays before the Verona win, two more consecutive defeats: the 1-0 Easter Monday loss at the Maradona to Napoli and the 0-3 home humiliation by Udinese at San Siro. Four losses across the last six matchdays — a disastrous run that has erased a cushion which had looked more than enough to seal a top-four finish.

The full statistical picture is brutal. In the second half of the season, AC Milan have collected 25 points, against the 42 earned in the first half: a swing of -17 points between the two halves of the campaign that flirts with the worst recent precedents (Vincenzo Montella's 2016/17 closed at -15, while the 2002/03 season under Carlo Ancelotti actually hit -17 in the year that delivered the all-Italian European Cup final in Manchester). Across the last six matchdays, AC Milan have picked up just 4 points, the product of a single win and a single draw — relegation-zone numbers in disguise.

The standings now demand at least six points across the two remaining fixtures to secure a return to the Champions League. Two wins, two clean jobs and the math is done: first at the Marassi, then at home on the final matchday. But should AC Milan stumble again in Genoa, the arithmetic could turn hostile and the entire season could close without the top-four berth that would unlock the summer plans for 2026/27. A heavy load on a side that has shown it cannot handle pressure.

AC Milan probable lineup: Tomori returns, Füllkrug-Nkunku up front

Reports from the closed-door training session at Milanello point to another forced reshuffle. Massimiliano Allegri sticks with the 3-5-2 but changes several heavy names out of necessity. The three suspensions picked up against Atalanta — Pervis Estupiñán, Rafael Leao and Alexis Saelemaekers — combined with the ongoing injury layoff of Luka Modrić, force the Italian coach to rework half of his XI. In front of Mike Maignan, Fikayo Tomori returns to the starting eleven after serving his one-match ban from the Sassuolo dismissal: he will line up alongside Matteo Gabbia in the middle and Strahinja Pavlović on the left to complete the back three.

The biggest surprise comes on the flanks. On the right, with Saelemaekers unavailable, the most likely starter is the young Swiss Noah Athekame, called up for a coming-of-age performance in a high-stakes away day. On the left, with Estupiñán suspended, the nod goes to Davide Bartesaghi, already a regular over the past weeks. In central midfield Allegri appears set to start Youssouf Fofana, although a duel with Ardon Jashari remains open; Samuele Ricci takes the deep-lying playmaker spot and the ever-present Adrien Rabiot operates as the left-sided box-to-box midfielder, once again the engine room's marquee name.

The headline call, however, comes up front. With Leao serving a ban and Santiago Giménez involved in a last-minute duel for the second striker spot, Allegri looks set to start the brand-new partnership of Niclas Füllkrug and Christopher Nkunku: an untested combination, physical and technical at the same time, that finally puts both summer signings centre-stage. The German would provide a target-man reference in front of the Genoa back three, with the Frenchman dropping into the half-spaces to find pockets between the lines. A move that has the feel of a gamble — and of the last card left in Allegri's hand.

Genoa probable lineup: De Rossi's last home game, Malinovskyi to start

Daniele De Rossi's Genoa arrive at this fixture already safe from relegation, a relief that has restored calm around the Pegli training ground. Sunday's match carries an extra layer of meaning for the home side: it is the final home game of the season for the Grifone and the final touchline appearance at the Marassi as Genoa manager for De Rossi. It will also be the penultimate home outing for Ruslan Malinovskyi, out of contract this summer and already on the radar of other Italian clubs: the Ukrainian will start in central midfield alongside Morten Frendrup as the double pivot in the 3-4-1-2.

In front of goalkeeper Justin Bijlow, the back three is expected to feature Alessandro Marcandalli, Leo Østigard and Johan Vásquez. The wing-back roles go to Mikael Ellertsson on the right and Aaron Martín on the left. As the attacking midfielder, De Rossi has chosen Tommaso Baldanzi, asked to find pockets of space between the lines. Up front, the strike partnership is entrusted to former AC Milan academy graduate Lorenzo Colombo and Portuguese forward Vitinha. A balanced XI that blends experience and freshness — the blueprint De Rossi has built across this second half of the campaign.

Recent meetings at the Marassi: AC Milan unbeaten in their last three Genoa trips

Recent history is on the Rossoneri's side. Across the last ten listed Genoa vs Milan meetings at the Marassi, dating back to 2014, the head-to-head reads six AC Milan wins, one draw and three Genoa wins, with twelve goals scored by the Rossoneri and nine conceded. The most recent three away trips to Genoa have all ended in Milan wins: 1-2 on 5 May 2025, 0-1 on 7 October 2023, even a 0-3 on 1 December 2021. A data point that paints AC Milan as one of the most uncomfortable visitors the Grifone face at home.

Widening the lens to every Serie A meeting (home and away) between the two sides, AC Milan are unbeaten in fifteen of the last sixteen: the only loss in that span remains the 2-1 defeat on 8 March 2020, in the very early days of the pandemic shutdown. Numbers that describe an opponent historically within reach for AC Milan, but the present tells a very different story: today's Rossoneri are not the side of the past, and De Rossi's Genoa at home have already given several Serie A heavyweights uncomfortable afternoons this season. Tradition reassures — it does not guarantee.

Match-day eve and Milanello programme

The programme for the eve of the match is unremarkable in form but loaded with meaning in substance. On Saturday 16 May a morning training session is scheduled at Milanello under the direction of Massimiliano Allegri, followed at 15:00 CET by the manager's pre-match press conference. Immediately after, the squad will move to the airport for the flight to Genoa, where they will stay overnight before the 12:00 CET kick-off on Sunday at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris. A standard build-up to a far-from-standard match.

The away party also includes the three suspended players — Estupiñán, Leao and Saelemaekers — and the injured Modrić, a deliberate choice from Allegri to keep the dressing room close in the most pressurised moment of the season. The Milan delegation in attendance at the Marassi will also include CEO Giorgio Furlani and sporting director Igli Tare, both at the centre of internal conversations about their roles for the summer to come. A matchday that will decide a great deal both on and off the pitch.

Probable lineups

How and where to watch Genoa vs Milan

Inside Italy the match is broadcast exclusively on DAZN, the platform that holds the full Serie A rights for the 2025/26 season. American viewers can stream it live on Paramount+, the official streaming home of Serie A in the United States via CBS Sports. Kick-off is at 12:00 CET (6:00 AM ET, 3:00 AM PT) at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris: an unusually early window for matchday 37, dictated by the league's late-season requirement to play simultaneously for the integrity of the table both at the top (European places) and at the bottom (relegation). Italian-language commentary and pre-match coverage are handled by the DAZN studio team with their full late-season production.

Genoa vs Milan prediction: a narrow Milan win to keep the season alive

On paper, AC Milan are favourites: even without three suspended players and Modrić, the squad has greater quality than a Genoa side that can finally play with no pressure left on its shoulders. But football is not played on paper, and the last five Rossoneri outings have shown a side that looks confused, fragile and unable to absorb difficulty. The tactical key will be Samuele Ricci's ability to receive and play through the press of Morten Frendrup and Ruslan Malinovskyi, two ball-winners who love to step forward and bite onto the carrier.

Up front, the great unknown is the Füllkrug-Nkunku partnership: two players who have shown flashes through the season but never started together. AC Milan will gamble a great deal on their improvised chemistry. On the other side, watch out for Lorenzo Colombo: an academy product of the Rossoneri who has always declared himself a Milan fan, but a goal against the club that raised him would be the classic ex-player narrative the Marassi loves to write. The stadium factor matters too: the Marassi is historically a venue that lifts Genoa, and on Sunday it will be packed for one last farewell to De Rossi and his squad.

Our prediction is for a narrow AC Milan win: a 0-1 or a 1-2 away win feel like the most consistent scenarios with both the current moment and recent history at the Marassi. Three points that would mean far more than three points: Champions League qualification effectively wrapped up with one matchday to spare, a summer of forced sales avoided and a dignified ending to a season that had once dared to dream much bigger. But it requires a level of maturity that has been missing so far: a team that does not crumble at the first sign of trouble, a team that proves it is still alive.